Will it happen (P1)
Is the requirement real and funded, is it a stated customer priority, and is the budget identified? A brilliant bid on a contract that never gets let is still a loss.
How the PWin Calculator works
PWin is your probability of winning a bid, shown as a percentage. This page explains how the read is built, what the number is useful for, and where PWin can mislead you if you treat it as the only metric that matters.
The core logic: will it happen, would they pick you
Every PWin read starts from two questions. First, will the customer actually award this contract (we call this P1). A perfect bid on a requirement that is never let is still a loss. Second, if it is awarded, would they pick you over the competition (P2). Multiply the two and you get a single, honest probability you can act on before you commit real money to a bid.
Most teams inflate one or both of these to get a bid through the gate. The point of a disciplined read is to keep both numbers honest, so the decision that follows is sound.
What the read weighs
The tool asks a short set of questions that map onto the factors below, then reads your answers against benchmarks from 30+ UK prime contractors and a price to win dataset spanning more than 10 years. Every assessment runs 500 million simulations to produce the headline number and the confidence band around it.
Would they pick you (P2)
Your access to the decision makers, how well your solution fits the requirement, your price position, and your competitive and incumbent standing.
Capture stage
The same score means different things at pipeline stage and at submission. Where you are in capture shapes how we read the number.
Deal size and sector
Value band and sector set the benchmarks we read your score against, drawn from 30+ UK prime contractors.
The confidence band
No honest estimate is a single point. The free headline read is quick, so it comes with a wider band, for example plus or minus 10 points. The more you tell us, the tighter that band gets, because the model has more to work with. When the stakes are high, the fuller assessment narrows the range considerably and tells you which few factors are dragging your score.
PWin is not price to win
This is the most common confusion, so it is worth stating plainly. PWin (win probability) tells you whether to bid and how likely you are to win. PTW (price to win) tells you what number to put on the page to be competitive. They are different tools answering different questions. The gap between winning and losing on public sector bids is often less than 3%, which is exactly why you need both, used correctly, rather than one standing in for the other.
What it is useful for
Bid or no-bid
Decide where to spend scarce bid effort before the deadline pressure hits.
Gate reviews
Bring a defensible number to capture and bid gate decisions.
Where to improve
See the few factors holding your score back, and the moves that lift it.
Portfolio view
Compare opportunities on a like for like basis instead of gut feel.
Frequently asked questions
What is PWin?
PWin is your probability of winning a bid, shown as a percentage. It combines whether the customer will actually award the contract with whether they would choose you if they do. A PWin of 40% means that, on the evidence you have given, roughly four bids like this in ten would convert.
Is PWin the same as price to win?
No. PWin (win probability) tells you whether to bid and how likely you are to win. PTW (price to win) tells you what number to put on the page to be competitive. They are different tools for different decisions, and conflating them leads to poor bid choices.
How accurate is the headline read?
The free headline read is deliberately quick, so it carries a wider confidence band. The more questions you answer, the tighter that band gets. For a bid you are serious about, the fuller assessment narrows the range considerably.
What data is the calculator built on?
The read is benchmarked against work with 30+ UK prime contractors and a price to win dataset spanning more than 10 years. Every assessment runs 500 million simulations to produce the headline number and its confidence band.
Do I need to sign up?
No. The headline PWin and confidence band are free with no sign-up. You only share an email if you want the full breakdown and the priority moves sent to you as a report.
Who is the PWin Calculator for?
Capture and bid teams selling to UK government and defence who need a defensible number for bid or no-bid decisions, gate reviews, and deciding where to spend scarce bid effort before a deadline.
Go deeper on PWin
Seven plain-English reads on what PWin is, how to calculate it, and where the number misleads you.